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Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Financial conflict – Syria looks to Russia and Iran

Money Laundering Bulletin

http://www.moneylaunderingbulletin.com/sanctions/financial-conflict--syria-looks-to-russia-and-iran-93281.htm


 
Syria, mired in bloody civil war, is also fighting multilateral sanctions. Although notionally cut off from the international banking system, Damascus is evading the restrictions through use of Russian banks and receiving assistance from Iran, reports Paul Cochrane from Beirut. Neighbouring Lebanon is caught in the crossfire, despite not serving the Syrian regime as a major conduit for flight capital.

In 2011, as the Syrian government cracked down on protesters, the United States, followed by the European Union (EU), the United Nations and the Arab League imposed economic and financial sanctions on the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Key members of the government, state-owned institutions, and connected businessmen and companies were also designated, including the Central Bank of Syria and the country’s largest deposit-taking institution, the state-owned Commercial Bank of Syria.

All transactions in US dollars were curbed, along with the use of the SWIFT system, and state banks’ accounts outside Syria were frozen. In December 2012, the EU Council of Ministers banned new correspondent banking relations between Syrian financial institutions and EU banks.

The sanctions, in addition to the loss of crucial oil export revenues with Europe, hit the Syrian government hard but did not deal a crippling blow. The Syrian economy had only been liberalising since the beginning of the century - private banks entered the country after 2004 - and the state was still a major economic player. When hostilities broke out, the private bank sector had some US$11 billion in deposits, and the whole banking sector USD29.8 billion, according to Syrian Central Bank (SCB) figures, a blip on the global level, and significantly lower than neighbouring Lebanon’s banks’ US$131 billion in deposits.

Nevertheless, March 2011 saw the start of significant account withdrawals - estimated at US$2.5 billion in the first year of the conflict, according to Bank Audi figures. As hostilities dragged on, more money was taken out with Lebanese media reporting Russia as the destination. But “the well-to-do already had accounts in Europe, it is the smaller guys who have cash and don’t have accounts,” according to Abdul Hafiz Mansour, secretary of the Special Investigation Commission, Lebanon’s financial intelligence unit (FIU). While Lebanon was flagged as a destination for Syrian flight capital, officials and bankers insist that the country – which was partly occupied by Syria for 30 years, until 2005 - is not a home for Syrian regime money. The data appears to support their case, with no abnormal rise in deposits at Lebanese banks since 2011. “The regulations and prudential supervision do not make it easy for money to be placed in the system in Lebanon. It could be easier to do so elsewhere,” said Mansour. Another Lebanon official noted that across the Levant and west Asia, “from Afghanistan to Turkey, it is a very porous region” for banking, adding that it can be straightforward to deposit funds in a Pakistani, Iraqi or Afghan institution, with few questions asked.

Yet, Syrian money is clearly entering Lebanon via refugees, migrant workers and businesses transferring cash. Refugee numbers reached 914,000 this year, according to the World Bank, and are forecast to rise to 1.6 million next year – a particular problem given Lebanon’s population is less than 5 million. The influx caused Beirut to advise the US Treasury that it would allow accounts to be opened by non-sanctioned Syrians and these would be monitored for abnormal activity.

“When the [US] Executive Order was put in place the reality on the ground was different and you didn’t have [a] large number of refugees in Lebanon,” said Chahdan Jebeyli, general manager and head of legal and compliance at Bank Audi, who also chairs the compliance committee of the Association of Banks in Lebanon: “I personally expect more relaxation, not of the rules, but the way the rules are applied to those that have ceased activities in Syria and are engaged elsewhere, including Lebanon.”

Not all Lebanese banks are accepting Syrian deposits, however, with some unofficially but commonly recognised as anti-Syrian for political reasons. Indeed, Syrians know which to deal with and, if refused, Lebanese friends and relatives will often hold deposits on their behalf.

The Syrian Pound (SYP) can also be exchanged within Lebanon, albeit at fluctuating rates due to the currency’s depreciation; it stood at SYP46 to the US dollar in early 2011 but is over SYP200 today. Asked about the rate to the US dollar, a dealer in Beirut said: “Between SYP210 and SYP230, but it is changing by the second.”

Meanwhile, with blocks on SWIFT and transactions in dollars there has been rising use of ‘hawala’, despite a ban on the alternative remittance system in both Lebanon and Syria. A war economy and rapidly depreciating currency mean that, increasingly, trade deals and pricing are carried out in greenbacks, and to a lesser extent in Euros, Emirati Dirhams and Saudi Arabian Riyals. In response, the Syrian central bank banned both trading and pricing in US dollars in August. “The SCB also limited the ceiling of dollars sold to individuals, from US$1,000 to US$500 a month, and clamped down on the black market. This is how it has managed to keep the exchange rate at SYP200 for the past two months,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor of financial publication, The Syria Report.

With the government haemorrhaging money to pay for the conflict and keep subsidies as well as state-sector salaries going, foreign reserves have dwindled from US$18 billion (source: SCB) when the conflict started. To offset a looming cash-flow problem, Damascus approached its only ally in the Middle East, Iran, for financial assistance this year, opening credit lines of US$7.6 billion.

“Syria may have just US$3-US$4billion left in the central bank and would rather not spend it, so they need the help from the Iranians. But there is really an absence of any data. The last time the SCB made any announcements about reserves was in May 2011,” Yazigi observed.

As to where the Syrian government funds and those of regime members have headed, fingers are pointing at Russia as a prime candidate. In September, four American senators called on the US Treasury to cut off three Russian banks from the US financial system as they were “undermining sanctions” by “aiding Assad”. The senators accused Vnesheconombank (VEB) of facilitating Syrian payments for Russian missile systems; Gazprombank for processing crude oil payments; and VTB (75%-stated owned) for hosting President Assad’s personal accounts.

VTB and VEB issued statements denying involvement with Syrian government accounts. “Historically, VEB acts on behalf of the government in terms of servicing the foreign debt of Russia, including settlements with Syria. Our bank does not have any other business with the Central Bank of Syria, its government, or government-controlled organisations. All the activities carried out by VEB are strictly in accordance with the sanctions adopted by the EU and the UN on the Syrian Republic,” VEB told state news agency RIA Novosti. Such protestations from Moscow contrast with comments from the Syrian government. At the end of 2011, the Central Bank of Syria governor Adib Mayaleh said that his institution had opened accounts at Russian banks. “There is around USD2 billion of Syrian foreign reserves in Russia. Mayaleh was open about that, that they had opened accounts,” said Yazigi.

In December 2012, Syrian state press reported that the bank had opened Euro and Rouble accounts with VTB, VEB, and Gazprombank, and issued guidelines to Syrian banks on how to deal with the Russian institutions. Earlier in the year, in June, the finance ministry stated that Syrian banknotes would be printed in Moscow, following the ban on currency printing in Europe, where, previously, it had used Austrian and Belgian printers. 

Photo via MoneyLaunderingBulletin.com

Copyright Informa Group
 

Monday, October 28, 2013

Lebanon exposed to telecoms security risks by lack of legislation

 The Daily Star - with internationalnewsservices.com




BEIRUT: The sheer scope of the United States’ telecommunications surveillance is a hot topic, with recent revelations showing the U.S. was snooping on 35 world leaders and is bulk spying on millions of people around the planet. Yet while the European Union is updating its data protection legislation in the wake of the revelations from the documents leaked by former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden, Lebanon is exposed at the internal and external level.
It is an issue for citizens and businesses alike, with no law yet enacted for electronic commerce, e-transactions, cybercrimes such as phishing (stealing of data, account information and money from, say, an online bank account) or data security.
“On the legal side I don’t think we are protected at all,” said Gabriel Deek, vice president of the Internet Society of Lebanon.
One of the pillars of the economy, the banking and financial sector, is also exposed.
“We assume there is banking security, but that doesn’t equal to data security today. For instance, a few months ago a list of 8,000 people’s credit card numbers on a Lebanese internet provider were put on the net,” said Cyrus Salesse, CEO of Krypton Security, an information security consultancy with offices in Beirut. “At one financial institution, a Chinese hacker was sitting inside their system for a year. Most entities in the Middle East don’t know about hacker attacks until it’s too late.”
Financial institutions have yet to adopt the Payment Card Industry Data Security (PCI) Standard that is being utilized worldwide, which enhances payment-card data security at institutions and service providers that deal with client data. While the Central Bank of Jordan has given a deadline to banks to be PCI certified, Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban, has not done so.
“The BDL hasn’t picked up on that and seems to be playing a weaker role in this security environment,” Salesse said. “The infrastructure of Lebanese online banking security is – I want to say old – but it is inadequate. It is an affordability issue, as many banks use homemade software, so to adopt newer, more secure software needs total business re-engineering.”
But according to Salam Yamout, the government’s national e-strategy coordinator, the BDL is working on certain projects, including an e-payment gateway and clearing transactions in real time.
“Security is at the top of their list,” Yamout said.
In the meantime, at the national level, legislation is coming up short.
“You have civil and commercial rights, but against financial institutions? Standards are very low when it comes to transactions with credit cards inside Lebanon, or the technical criteria to allow authentication of commercial factors,” said Riad Bahsoun, chairman of the Policy and Regulatory Committee at the International Telecommunication Council for Lebanon.
What is holding back data security, and the potential for e-commerce to take off, is legislation. Back in 1996, a law was proposed to allow e-signatures, but this was deemed not encompassing enough, and an e-commerce law was proposed in 2004. The draft law was rejected twice as it was considered too draconian by the private sector.
“I worked to lobby against it as it was a bad law,” Deek said.
In 2011, the office of Prime Minister Najib Mikati took control of the draft law, and for the first time in the country’s history, the private sector was involved in the committee.
“I believe we’ve done the right thing, to go back and simplify it, and have freedom of expression on the Internet,” Yamout said. “This legislation is crucial to the e-ecosystem as it covers all aspects of the e-economy: banking, service providers [not telecoms but hosting], data storage and protection, and cybercrime.”
But while the law was passed at the ministerial level, it has not been ratified by the Parliament.
“Anything involving more than one ministry requires cooperation, and that is why it was slow [to be implemented],” Yamout said. “The digital economy, IT and telecom is not a priority given the tough constraints of politics and security in the country. It’s like a house burning down – do you put the fire out, or save the furniture first?”
Even if the law is passed – which could be years away as there is a caretaker government currently in place – e-commerce faces an uphill battle for greater adoption in the country.
“When it comes to e-commerce, there is no trust in credit cards and online transactions,” said Salim Tannous, cluster director at the Beirut Creative Cluster. “Another problem is control, the gatekeepers – the customs – which are not facilitating e-commerce. It is about controlling the ins and outs, especially of books and media. If you only allow a few suppliers, it is easier to control them, and hurt them if they are not compliant. By resisting change, it protects the old guard – government officials, customs and traditional suppliers. We need a solution that bypasses the old system that takes a cut.”
What concerns the private sector is that whenever the law is passed, it will have become outdated compared to other jurisdictions, which could lead to another round of debate and the potential for redrafting. Already the law is not seen as encompassing enough.
“The law will not solve whatever issues are related to industrial espionage or financial transaction traffic,” Deek said.
When it comes to external surveillance, the public and private sectors are fully aware that Lebanon is exposed to some of the highest rates of surveillance in the world. The country is being spied on by Israel, Jordan, NATO, the NSA, and via the British signals intelligence base in Cyprus, which is partly funded by the NSA.
With bureaucracy in general not automated, and government websites information orientated, the more archaic method of data gathering means there is not much chance of any mass data leaks or electronic data for external agencies to spy on.
“Some ministers don’t even have official email addresses – gov.lb – but use their own email, so that is not safe, meaning Hotmail has access to a government official,” Tannous said.
Domestically, there is no specific legislation in place to ensure privacy. But this principle is mentioned in the Constitution through adherence to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states the right to privacy in communications. Law 140 (1999), enacted in 2009, protects the right to privacy in telecommunications.
“It is unconstitutional to eavesdrop on people. There is no specific code, but a general text that protects privacy and personal information, which is the penal code of 1943. Also there is no text regarding e-records as the Constitution was issued in 1923 and amended in 1990,” said Paul Morcos, founder of the Justicia law firm. “The penal code includes text concerning privacy and correspondence that might be applicable to other communication means, but as Law 140 is enacted, it is more specific than the penal code. That said, we need a complete reform of the criminal code.”
The exception to Law 140 is the intelligence agencies in order to gather information aimed at combating terrorism, organized crime and crimes against the security of the state. The issue though is that while agencies must get juridical authorization and give the reason for monitoring, the type of communication to be monitored (email, telephone), the region and a time period, there is no effective governmental oversight.
“We don’t have the slightest guarantee our privacy is not violated,” Bahsoun said.
Law 140 has been controversial, and it is still provoking debate as to which ministry should be in charge.
“From a legal point of view, this Law 140 about interception is badly drafted. Besides, the decision to host it in the Telecoms Ministry makes sense, but the request that the data transmission is sent to the Minister of Telecommunications, and up to him to implement it is ridiculous. It should be with the Interior Ministry or the Defense Ministry, and be under control of the Council of Ministers with direct reporting procedures,” Bahsoun said.
There was a Defense Ministry-Telecoms Ministry liaison team to oversee interception that was headed up by six officials, but it was disbanded.
“I worked with them, and recommended to the president and the prime minister this team should be expanded to 50 people, at least, and have autonomy,” Bahsoun said.
“There is a lot of work to do to have security, but the government canceled the liaison team, which shows that behind the scenes there are forces that want data manipulation.”
The country does not have the financial or technical capabilities for total spectrum surveillance of telecommunications on par with, say the NSA, but the intelligence agencies are not without capabilities.
Furthermore, intelligence agencies activities are being widened, with a cyberunit at the Information Branch and interception able to be carried out by Military Intelligence, while the former head of the latter, Abbas Ibrahim, is now the head of General Security and is reorganizing its capabilities.
“The Information Branch has the software to intercept [smart phone communication application] WhatsApp, the metadata and data. It is given by certain countries, such as Germany,” Bahsoun said.
Getting legislation in place that protects citizens, businesses and consumers is going to take time, and the debate will continue in Lebanon as in the rest of the world about data protection.
“The balance of power concerns me. The question is, how do you make justice prevail? We are still fighting for the freedom of the Internet and we want no restrictions,” Deek said.


Photo credit - (The Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir)

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Enhanced Due Diligence to Curb Insurance Fraud

Thomson Reuters

You can download a pdf of the paper here:
https://smartsales.thomsonreuters.com/exLink.asp?39869280OQ12G93I277494216




The Association of British Insurers (ABI) estimates that 15 fraudulent insurance claims are exposed every hour of every day in the United Kingdom. In 2011, insurers uncovered 139,000 fraudulent claims worth an estimated $1.5 billion. But despite such success in detection – up 7 percent on the previous year - and the sector investing some $300 million annually to prevent fraud, an estimated $3 billion in insurance fraud goes undetected.
That is just in the UK. In India insurance fraud is estimated at $5.63 bn a year, in New Zealand anywhere between $1.6 bn to $6.49 bn, in Germany $5 bn, in Australia $1.94 bn, and in the United States upwards of $80 bn to $100 bn. Add on undetected fraud losses and the figures run into further billions. It would not be sensational to estimate that thousands of cases of insurance fraud are happening every hour of every day across the globe. 



While insurers will investigate and uncover a good percentage of fraudulent cases, many will go undetected, costing the sector and customers additional expense and higher premiums. Indeed, in the US, insurance fraud is now considered to be the second largest economic crime after tax evasion, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB).
Mature financial markets are more exposed to risks in general, and insurance is no exception. Insurance fraud figures are highest in the areas with higher insurance penetration, reflected in the global market breakdown, with Europe accounting for 35.9 percent of the global insurance market in 2011, North America 28.9 percent, and Asia 28.2 percent, according to Swiss Re in 2012. The Middle East and Central Asia by comparison accounts for 0.9 percent of global share, Africa 1.5 percent and Latin America 3.4 percent.
However, while emerging markets in general have lower insurance penetration rates – in the Middle East for instance it is 1.55 percent compared to the global average of 6.6 percent – insurance fraud is considered to be equally on the rise. Insurance fraud is not a country or region specific phenomenon, it is truly global and projected to rise.

The up-tick

Insurance fraud is arguably as old as the sector itself, and its pervasiveness has increased over the years, as have techniques and sophistication. The US-based Coalition Against Insurance Fraud (CAIF) defines fraud as “a deliberate deception perpetrated against or by an insurance company or agent for the purpose of financial gain.”
However, Leonard Brimson, EMEA Regional Head of Global Investigative Services at insurer AIG, urges caution in using the term too loosely. “When we talk about fraud it can be a dangerous word to use, as unless someone has been tried and convicted, it is only suspicious activity. The terminology is important,” he said.
What has caused an up-tick in insurance fraud – and suspected insurance fraud - in recent years is the increased focus by regulators on the banking sector to curb financial crimes, notably money laundering, and this has correspondingly driven fraudsters towards the insurance sector.
“The rise in insurance fraud is fuelled by the tightening of bank regulations, which has made it tougher for fraudsters to get money from banks. Criminals do not change jobs, they look for organisational weaknesses and exploit them,” said Anne Green, Head of Fraud for Underwriting, Pricing and Product at Aviva in the UK.
But the rise in insurance fraud is not solely down to organized criminals and “professional” fraudsters. It is prevalent at a nationwide, cross-the-spectrum level, and is likely to be attributed to the ongoing ramifications of the 2008 financial crisis and austerity measures, certainly in Europe.
For example, in the UK-based Insurance Fraud Investigators Group’s (IFIG) ‘Insurance Fraud 2012’ report, “the evidence suggests that the recession is already driving an increase in opportunistic claims from policyholders, with 85 percent of respondents reporting an increase in inflated or exaggerated claims [in 2012] and 76 percent reporting an increase in completely bogus claims. ”
In three surveys carried out by IFIG in 2009, 2010 and 2012, the top concern of respondents was that the “recession was fueling fraud,” with another top answer: “increased fraud at policy inception.” A further top concern for insurers was having adequate resources to tackle fraud. Indicative of this was that “70 percent of companies have moved fraud up the agenda in the last year and 74.5 percent have increased investment in fraud detection.”
As Green observed: “The insurance industry needs to take a strong stance against fraud, looking across the life cycle of the relationship with the customer, from the point at which the policy is sold right through to the claims process.”



Global spread

The concerns highlighted by the IFIG are being reflected by insurers, associations and financial bodies around the world. “The trend (of insurance fraud) is certainly upwards, and I deal with 48 countries,” said Brimson.
“If you compare one country with another, some policies are more prone to fraud, and in countries where insurance is less prevalent, it is typically life insurance fraud. We see a huge difference in value and volumes on a country basis. Most crimes that are common tend to be perpetuated that have been successful in the past. If we see something in one country that is profitable for fraudsters, we will see that happening in a neighbouring country and then spread across the continent.”
Evident of this is the rise in general claims and life insurance fraud in emerging markets. Indian insurance companies lost $5.63 bn to fraud in 2011, equivalent to an estimated 9 percent of the total insurance industry, according to a 2012 study by Indiaforensic.
The life insurance segment accounted for as much as 86 percent of the fraud and the remainder in the general insurance sector, with life insurance fraud more than doubling over the past five years and general insurance fraud surging by 70 percent, according to figures by India’s Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA).
According to Vietnam’s Insurance Management and Supervision Department, between 2007 and 2011 over 44,700 cases of insurance fraud were reported worth $19.7 million, with the lion’s share being life insurance cases at 40,700.
In the Middle East, insurance fraud could be as high as 30 to 40 percent of all claims, while estimated at $1.5 billion a year, and has been exacerbated by recent regional unrest and political transformation. “There is a noticeable increase in the claims trend in our region. We are seeing more and more incidents relating to fraudulent claims recently and are becoming more cautious about each and every claim,” said Ronald Chidiac, general manager of the Arab Reinsurance Company in Lebanon. “Fraud
has taken on many new faces from the usual suspects. This is clearly noted in life and medical insurance where fraud exists from the initial stages of delivering the data, to managing the portfolio and the claims. The parties involved are not dealing properly with the mitigation of risk and are not getting involved in the analysis required to catch these fraudulent claims, relying on a third party to compensate them for their losses.” 




Fraud across all classes

The scale of insurance fraud cases can be massive. In March, 2013, federal investigators in North Carolina, USA, uncovered the country’s largest ever insurance fraud crop scheme, which involved 41 people, including insurance agents, claims adjusters, brokers and farmers, and could have cost a government-backed crop insurance programme some $100 million. Such a scheme can be described as “hard” fraud: deliberately faked claims or of the more complex variety, involving several parties, such as insurance agents, witnesses and “professional enablers” like lawyers and doctors.
But the vast majority of fraud can be termed “soft”, such as exaggerating the value of a legitimate claim and providing false information to pay lower insurance premium prices. Indeed, in the UK and the US, motor, personal injury and property insurance have experienced the greatest rise in fraudulent activities. That said, there has been a notable rise in the UK in bogus claims over the past few years, and in the US medical insurance fraud is still the biggest form of fraud, estimated at over $60 billion a year.
“Some areas of insurance fraud are growing more exponentially than others. The growth in bodily injuries has been quite dramatic and is a major concern for the industry. There are a few reasons for that, such as compensation culture increasing and higher value pay outs, even for minor injuries. It is not just the volume of the suspicious activity, it is the value as well, as it seems to be linked,” said Brimson.
With insurance fraud on the rise and diversifying as the industry offers more products and, in cases, better pay outs, there is a heightened need for carrying out due diligence to reduce the risk of fraudulent claims and losses within the sector from the outset, be they from inside a company or from policy holders.

The need for enhanced due diligence

Within a month of signing up to an anti-fraud database, British insurer Ageas had identified two large fraud rings with over 100 people involved; one ring affected 26 other insurers.
Technology is playing an increasing role in curbing fraud, from anti-fraud and identity software to databases that list sanctioned individuals, listed terrorists and criminals, to carry out enhanced due diligence (EDD).
“Technology and computer infrastructure is critical. It allows us to put together bodies of data, sometimes obscure, quickly. There have also been huge strides in recent years in predictive analytical possibilities, which allows us to spot anomalies very quickly,” said Brimson.
A risk-based approach to taking on clients requires investigating who a person or company legitimately is, and assessing what risks are involved with doing a transaction.
Enhanced due diligence goes further than basic due diligence in investigating an entity more thoroughly, such as looking into an entity’s background, finding out the actual ownership structure of an organization and those linked to it – such as politically exposed persons (PEPs) or sanctioned individuals that carry with them heightened risk – and looking into businesses with which an entity works, including government ties. EDD, also known as special due diligence, is typically carried out as a one off investigation, but can be followed up with ongoing due diligence to ensure a client will not pose potential risk down the road.
“Carrying out EDD when a policy is taken out means the insurer has a better understanding of the risk it takes on,” said Green. “In addition, it can protect the innocent customer by tackling organised crimes such as ghost broking or ‘crash for cash’ scams as well as helping customers understand the importance of honesty, not just when they take out a policy but also if they need to make a claim. Ghost Broking is a common trend and is made easier in the absence of EDD.”
In the general absence of specific due diligence activities available to the financial and banking sector such as Know Your Customer (KYC) forms to carry out compliance– the feeling in the insurance sector is largely that it would be too invasive and customers would balk at the idea of disclosing extra information – EDD through investigations and utilizing appropriate software gains further credence. “Would people sign up to greater scrutiny within our industry? I doubt it very much. I don’t see any will of the client to provide that kind of data, unless it was mandatory. There is a need to be careful in not going too far, and close off people to insurance,” said Brimson. 





Not a panacea

Adopting anti-fraud and risk intelligence software cannot be viewed as a panacea for doing effective due diligence. Indeed, when it comes to technology, not all companies are utilising it effectively, as the US-based Coalition Against Insurance Fraud found in a study published in 2012 to better understand insurer adoption and use of technology in America.
The study found that while nearly 90 percent of insurers surveyed used anti-fraud technology, most only used basic tools such as automated red flags, claims scoring and link analysis. Less than half of insurers surveyed used predictive modeling, text mining, geographic data mapping and other advanced analytics, while only about 14 percent used any automated tools to detect underwriting or point-of-sale fraud.
There is also the danger of technology being viewed as a solution to fraud and due diligence, and that human input is not required to the same degree as before. Indeed, in emerging markets there is a need for improvement in tackling fraud beyond just adopting anti-fraud and other technologies to get appropriate EDD.
“It is not an issue of software, it is an issue of culture first. Companies are looking at technology to automate the business processes and not analyse anymore,” said Chidiac. “It is not about simply installing a software for risk management, it is about the culture of dealing with fraud, as basic due diligence doesn’t even exist in much of the Middle East. Few companies have proper internal audits or due diligence.”
As Chidiac observed, a culture of compliance is prevalent among multinational insurance firms and bigger players, yet often comes up short in smaller and medium sized firms, especially in emerging markets. Developing such a compliance culture in-house is essential to curbing fraud from the get-go, which requires not only employing the right people, but making sure training is up to par, and there is regular training and development of staff. If the human element is not up to scratch, then technology cannot compensate for such shortcomings.
Software that features global watch lists of sanctioned individuals, PEPs, designated terrorists and so on, also need to be used judiciously.
That said, there are a handful of risk intelligence databases worldwide that assist companies in their compliance obligations with anti- corruption legislation like the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), as well as anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing regulations. To increase the accuracy of results, it’s a good idea to choose high quality, well structured risk intelligence that offers an EDD component. Enhanced due diligence should include details like the company’s shareholders and litigation history, as well as background information on management, decision makers, potential conflicts of interest, and potential political and criminal ties.
Indeed, not using databases or checking watch lists in addition to not doing due diligence can pose easily avoided risks for insurers. “It is amazing how few professionals care about the insurer’s ability to assess the risk and apply due diligence in their everyday functions,” said Chidiac. “For instance, despite some sanctions imposed in the region (such as on Syria), we still find risk carriers giving support to some of these sanctioned insurers and clients.”
On top of introducing a culture of due diligence and compliance at insurance companies, dedicated teams need to carry on from where EDD left off. “EDD will not cover opportunistic fraud, people taking advantage of a situation to exaggerate a claim, to cover excesses or make a profit from a risk event. Nor will it combat third party fraud. However, it should be noted that EDD is not the only tool employed to help tackle fraud,” said Green.
Indeed, the human element needs to be retained in addition to technology to counter fraud. “A large part of the solution needs to be hand in glove with people as well,” said Brimson. “To me, I think fraud and counter fraud will always be a people business, as people commit fraud for different reasons.”
The global struggle against insurance fraud will clearly continue, and prevention will have a measure of success or failure in different markets and regions, depending in part on their adoption of EDD. While regions like the Middle East have a way to go, and the Asia markets are in general bringing systems up to speed to tackle rising fraud, more advanced insurance markets are moving ahead.
“Detection of fraud is moving in the right direction, the focus on being reactive and having counter fraud measures at the claims stage has moved on and now includes more upfront EDD and prevention methods when a policy is taken out,” said Green.


Monday, October 07, 2013

Lebanon’s car sector: the downward shift


By Paul Cochrane
The Daily Star

BEIRUT: Going by overall figures of new cars sold, the automotive sector is doing surprisingly well in the current economic environment, up 4.33 percent in the first eight months of the year on 2012, and in comparative terms, above the GDP forecast of 1.6 percent for 2013. Furthermore, the figures are up on last year’s August results, which grew by 7.6 percent on 2011, and the 2.1 percent growth reported in the same period in 2010. But the sector is far from being in good health and bucking the downward trend in much of the rest of the economy.
Lump new car sales with the larger used car market, which accounts for around 60 percent of total sales, and overall sales are down 7 percent on last year, according to the Automobile Importers Association.
Yet while a drop in second-hand car sales is a boon to dealerships – and an environmental plus when it comes to the country’s carbon emissions, with fewer fuel-inefficient clunkers on the roads – the market has gone through a radical change in recent years that can be summed up in one word: downsizing.
“The market has shifted over the past five years, from the C segment to the smaller A and B segments,” said Nabil Bazerji, managing director of G.A Bazerji & Sons, distributor of Suzuki, Lancia and Maserati. “Before people bought a used BMW 3 Series, now it is a Kia Picanto as maintenance and fuel costs are lower.”
Prior to 2009, the lion’s share of car sales, at some 65 percent, were in the $22,000 to $90,000 price range. In the used car market, around 70 percent of sales were BMW and Mercedes, reflecting the widespread desire to own a luxury German car, even if several years old with 100,000 km on the clock.
However, the economic realities of inflation, higher fuel costs and lower purchasing power has led to 91 percent of the 24,008 new units sold until August being small cars, with price tags of around $10,000 to $12,000. Luxury car sales now account for just 2 percent of the market.
This trend is not likely to change any time soon.
“The A and B categories already dominate the market, and this trend will continue as consumers are increasingly seeking fuel efficient vehicles because purchasing power is shrinking,” said Farid Homsi, general manager of IMPEX, distributor for GM, Chevrolet and Cadillac.
The brands that have reported the strongest sales are Korean through their price competitive A and B segment models, up 9.52 percent on last year, with 11,181 units sold. Kia and Hyundai are into their fourth-consecutive year as the top two brands after knocking Nissan from the top spot. The Japanese brand is feeling the impact of the economic slowdown, with sales slumping 18.28 percent on last year despite an aggressive marketing campaign.
“The Europeans had their decade [as the top sellers], the Americans had theirs, as did the Japanese, now it is Korea’s turn,” said Rachid Rasamny, sales and marketing manager at Century Motor Co., distributor for Hyundai.
Cumulatively, the 28 European brands have dropped 2.13 percent on last year, the seven U.S. brands are down 5.26 percent, and the 10 Japanese brands just in the black, at 0.21 percent. There are exceptions, with Infiniti selling well, up 100 percent, Volvo up 51.2 percent, and Mitsubishi up 134.91 percent. Infiniti has introduced smaller engines, which is keeping sales strong, while Mitsubishi has introduced a compact model.
In the European non-luxury segment, it is the low-cost Dacia that is reporting the strongest sales through its Logan model, which sells for upward of $10,000. Among the American brands, only Ford is on the up, attributable to the brand having re-entered the market this past year.
As such figures show, sales are far from being evenly spread, and net profits are generally down across the board.
“The cake is getting smaller and there are more people who want to eat from it. I don’t see brands vanishing from the market but definitely some brands are having a tough time,” Homsi said.
Complicating the balancing of dealerships’ books is that the average return on a sale is 7 percent, which is equivalent to $700 on a category A model, making the automotive business a volume game with smaller margins.
“To compensate we need to sell bigger volumes but the problem is that not all of us can, and with three brands dominating sales, it is dangerous for the industry,” Bazerji said.
Kia, Hyundai and Nissan account for 59.89 percent of sales, while the two Korean players have 46.5 percent market share, at 26.75 percent and 19.7 percent respectively. In the A segment, the Koreans also dominate, with the Hyundai i10 accounting for 40 percent of sales and the Kia Picanto 50 percent, according to Rasamny.
Other distributors are scrambling for what is left. For Chevrolet, the fifth biggest brand by sales in the country, sales are down by 19.41 percent on last year, while 60 percent of sales are in Category A (the Spark) and B (Aveo and Sonic) segments.
“It is true that you have three market leaders today, but competition for fourth to seventh ranking is getting stronger,” Homsi said.
Such competition is focused around the longer-established brands selling more compact vehicles at typically higher prices than the current top three by emphasizing quality, safety and after sales to a squeezed middle class.
“Customer service experience is the key factor that sets the dealer apart from competition. Statistics show that 46 percent of satisfied customers will definitely repurchase a vehicle of the same brand,” Homsi said.
Yet while the sector has been shaken up by a downward shift and the rise of the Korean brands, the situation in the market is not so different from others around the world that are still in the grips of recession and austerity measures.
“It is comparable to the U.S. manufacturers downsizing in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis; they understood that cars that are five meters long with V-8 engines are not for daily use,” Bazerji said.
In Europe, car registration is near a 20 year low, but just as Lebanese are opting for smaller models, Europeans, who have long favored compact models, are also downsizing from the C segment by buying small SUV crossovers, with sales up 88 percent over the past year, according to industry publication I.H.S. Automotive.
“We have clients that come into the showroom who own V-6 or V-8 engine cars but want to downsize to four cylinders. They are not low income earners, but realize they are spending way too much on fuel,” Rasamny said.
With the demand for smaller cars in vogue globally, this has prompted manufacturers to focus on the compact segments by introducing more choice, with Hyundai, for example, to introduce the Grand i10.
“The size is between the i10 and i20, so the A and B segment, and caters to a price segment that we didn’t offer before, at around $12,000 to $17,000,” Rasamny said.
To adapt to the ongoing downward shift in the overall market, some leading dealerships have acquired the import licenses for up-and-coming Chinese brands. Rymco, which has the Nissan dealership, has a 50 percent stake in Chery; NATCO, which has the Kia brand, launched BYD in the market this year; and last June, Rasamny Automotive Industries, which has the Hyundai dealership, launched Geely.
“Dealers had to do this strategically, and to get another brand is not much cost, just another showroom, as the whole back office is already there,” Rasamny said.
The Chinese brands are spicing up competition even further in the sector, with sales up 66.31 percent on last year, and rising nearly a percentage point to 2 percent of the market. Chery had growth of 138.1 percent and Geely, which bought out Volvo in 2010, was up 88.11 percent.
The rise in sales of newcomer Chinese brands further reflects the low purchasing power in the country, with their offerings the cheapest on the road and strong results in the small categories, with 58 percent of Geely’s sales in the A segment.
“People even need help in the $10,000 range as they have limited income,” said Imad Ghorra, general manager at Geely. “Many deals are not done as clients can’t pay the down-payment of $1,000 to $1,500. That shows the income of clients here, so even if the car is 20 percent cheaper than other brands, every dollar counts.”
Holding back the potential of the Chinese brands is that banks are not yet extending loan facilities, a factor that bolstered the overall sector when loans became more readily available, with sales surging from 19,100 in 2004 to reach a benchmark of 35,400 in 2008.
If the banks do extend financing, it may usher in a decade of strong Chinese brand sales, and even more competition for the rest of the sector.
“The future is for more Chinese cars, and we will be among the top players in Lebanon some time in the next few years. I can foresee Geely sales really flying,” Ghorra said. – with internationalnewsservices.com

Friday, September 27, 2013

Heat on for Qatar


Qatar is turning itself from a Gulf desert backwater into a cutting-edge 21st century state with a football World Cup to host in 2022. How are its systems coping under the pressure? 

By Paul Cochrane for Accountancy Futures
www.accaglobal.com/futuresjournal
with www.internationalnewsservices.com



Qatar is a country in a hurry. Under its 22-year plan, the Qatar National Vision 2030, the country is planning to diversify away from its reliance on hydrocarbons to become a knowledge-based, sustainable economy. That vision commits the government to spending US$93bn on education, healthcare and infrastructure, not to mention its hosting of the planet’s most watched sports event, the World Cup, in 2022. Altogether, the state is investing US$200bn over the next decade in capital projects.

‘The infrastructure has to be of a globally recognised standard, not just for the World Cup,’ says Mark Lawrie, partner and head of consulting at Deloitte in Doha. ‘Roads, the metro, stadiums, schools and hospitals are all being built concurrently, which is pretty much unprecedented. It is a huge logistical challenge to bring everything into such a small country in such a short time.’

The fear of scoring an own goal is very real, given that the main financier of development is the state. Major developments are being backed by public or semi-public entities, including such developments as the US$20bn residential, retail and entertainment hub Lusail City and the US$14bn Pearl-Qatar artificial island project.

Project management is a clear concern, especially given the ticking clock of the World Cup. Qatar will not want delays and spiralling budgets, as was the case with the Doha Asian Games in 2006, and Hamad International Airport, which was slated to open in April 2013 (at a cost of US$17.5bn – back in 2006, the allocated budget was US$2.5bn) but is now slated to open in “early 2014.”

Muhannad Abu Ghazaleh, accounting director and acting executive director of finance at Al Jazeera Media Group, says: ‘There’s a need to avoid some of the issues faced in the Asian Games, when it became open budget and extra cost was paid. You can’t look at finance and auditing alone, but also at supply services – contracting process, payments, follow-up. Early planning is critical.’

Suggesting that some of the mega-projects under way may cost far more than anticipated, Bank of America Merrill Lynch reported in April that Qatar was seeking permission from international football association FIFA to reduce the number of World Cup stadiums from 12 to eight or nine.

Given Qatar is a small country (its two million people live in a 160km-long thumb-shaped peninsula), managing and governing these projects is a ‘massive challenge’, says Ewald Müller, director of financial analysis at the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority.

‘The next nine years and beyond the fall-out after the World Cup are going to be a big challenge for the profession, and that goes over into procurement. For me, transparency is key, and the profession needs to step up. The ratings agencies, Moody’s, have made noises about that.’

While Doha arguably has the funds – especially if energy prices remain high – a Moody’s report in April highlighted the issues faced by the country’s banks: a still developing corporate governance and risk management culture; lack of transparency surrounding local conglomerates; questionable commercial rationale for many of the government-related projects financed by the banks; rapid credit expansion; and the moral hazard that past government interventions have created.

That Qatar is playing catch-up is noted by the accounting profession. ‘Qatar started very late compared to neighbouring Gulf countries,’ says Dr Helmi Hammami, head of the accounting department at Qatar University, ‘we are lagging behind. There is movement behind the scenes, from education to streamlining the set of laws governing the profession – who should be certified, who should be an accountant in Qatar. That said, the profession needs a lot of improvement and the market needs a tremendous number of accountants. We need reporting. You can forget about an investor coming to a country where they don’t have a sound accounting profession; we cannot ignore this.’

Indicative of the newness of the profession is that the number of students studying accounting at the university has doubled over the past five years, and that only in 2011 was a master’s degree introduced. Hammami says: ‘In terms of curriculum, we’ve improved a lot. We used GAAP up to 2010, then we shifted towards International Financial Reporting Standards.’ But with just 60 to 70 Qatar University students graduating a year, and only half of that number being Qatari nationals, there are not enough graduates to meet demand or bolster the state’s drive to increase the number of Qatari employees.

It’s a challenge. Qataris number fewer than 300,000, while the overall population has gone from under 800,000 in 2002 to 1.9 million in 2013, according to the Qatar Statistics Authority. Some 94.1% of workers in the country are not Qataris, while 74.8% are unskilled or semi-skilled workers.
‘The Big Four are struggling to get Qataris,’ says Hammami. ‘It is a major issue here as graduates go to state-linked companies or banks, with big salaries. We are working to develop a strategy with the Big Four to show students the advantages of being in a major accounting firm.’

It is not just Qatari graduates who are avoiding the Big Four. So are local companies when it comes to choosing an accountancy and auditing firm. Rabih El Sous, a senior manager at KPMG Qatar, says: ‘There are many local accounting firms in Qatar, but from what I have observed compared with Dubai, Oman and Kuwait is that Qataris appreciate working with local firms rather than the Big Four. This, interestingly, puts pressure on the Big Four to behave differently, to be closer to clients.’

In the meantime, outsourcing financial services may resolve problems down the line. ‘Sometimes the speed of getting a talent on board, security clearance etc, is not as fast as in other countries, so having strong outsourcing for accounting could fulfil a need in the market,’ says Abu Ghazaleh. 

Friday, August 30, 2013

Only bad choices left for US in Syria

Global Times
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/807486.shtml#.UiBhZNfDhyw
By Paul Cochrane

Over the past week the call for military intervention has grown stronger following the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government. Given all the bluster by US President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron, and the military buildup in the Eastern Mediterranean, some form of military intervention is probable, as is upping weapon supplies to the rebels, which Western intelligence agencies have long been covertly doing.

If missile strikes are not happening, it is because the US and its allies are waiting for UN weapons inspectors to leave without, or hopefully, with, evidence linking the Syrian army to chemical weapons usage, or else calls to hold off intervention has gained strength.

A year ago, Obama said that if chemical weapons were used by Damascus, a red line would have been crossed and action would result. The first alleged chemical weapons scare back in April did not result in any action, yet this time appears different.

It was the deaths of an estimated 500 to 1,300 people in an August 21 attack that prompted the "need for action," not the 100,000 plus killed, the 1.9 million Syrian refugees, or the plight of an estimated 4 million Syrians living at the subsistence level on bread and sugary tea.

The rationale for military intervention, even if limited, is the same as Libya in 2011: to bolster the rebels and unseat the regime of Bashar al-Assad by targeting strategic military positions. It is a cliché to say that Syria is not Libya, and vice versa, but comparisons are being made and the differences should be noted.

Libya has a small population and is geostrategically relatively isolated, with broad swathes of desert between the cities and its neighbors. Syria however has over 20 million people, and is smack-bang in the middle of the Middle East, bordering Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. Damascus is less than two hours drive from Beirut and Amman, and the Israeli border is equally close.

Bombing Syria could be likened to dropping a large rock in a swimming pool to soak one person and getting everyone else drenched as well. That is the danger of military intervention, not just the "what ifs" about a post-Assad Syria.

Muammar Gaddafi's Libya had no friends in the Middle East and different neighbors. Damascus though has Iran on its side and support in Lebanon, specifically Hezbollah, while Russia stands with Syria at a global level.

Yet limited strikes may very well not result in major fall out and work as a warning to Assad. After all, the US just needs to point to Afghanistan and Iraq to show it is willing and able to destroy a country if need be.

But if the attacks mortally wound the regime or are not limited, until that is the case, Iran may not brush off such a blow.

Neither would Iranian ally Hezbollah, which left the side lines this year to enter the conflict with the Syrian army, and has hooked its future to the survival of the Syrian regime.

The situation in Lebanon will also likely heat up further, with two large bomb attacks in Beirut and Tripoli in the past fortnight that were blamed on the Syrian conflict.

Yet what kind of warning are such limited strikes to Damascus? Would the international community then continue to wring its hands over the conflict, as it has since it started over two years ago, and hope the crisis simmers down? Or resort to further military intervention?

A post-conflict Syria with Assad still in power is not to the US' and its allies' liking, but neither is an Islamist Syria. There seem to be few options on the table other than the military one that will wreak death and destruction, and still see the conflict rage on.

The author is a freelance journalist based in Beirut, Lebanon

Illustration by Liu Rui/GT

Thursday, August 22, 2013

China still easing into Middle Eastern investments

 Executive Special Report - China-Middle East

 Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress, with the UAE's chairman of the Federal National Council Mohammed Ahmed al-Mur 
 

Chinese firms have been investing in blue chip companies, snapping up high-end real estate and logistics firms around the world.  Shanghai International bought American meat company Smithfield for $4.7 billion in May, and China Merchants Holdings (International) Company acquired a 49 percent equity stake in port operator giant CMA CGM’s Terminal Link in June. But there have been hardly any such acquisitions, manufacturing deals or the like in the Middle East and North Africa over the past few years.

Between 2005 and 2012, there were just 16 Chinese investments of more than $100 million in the MENA region out of 404 investments worldwide, or 3.63 percent, according to data compiled by the Heritage Foundation. So far in 2013, there have been none. 

Out of the $688.1 billion that Chinese firms have invested globally since 2005, MENA accounts for $82.15 billion, or 11.9 percent of the total, a few points ahead of Chinese investment in Australia alone, at $58.2 billion, or 8.4 percent. Exclude firms’ investments in Iran, Israel and Turkey, and the Arab world accounts for $55.45 billion, or 8 percent of Chinese firms’ investment flows.

“Much of the trade is still limited to small traders and companies. Direct investment is rare,” says Ben Simpfendorfer, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultancy firm Silk Road Associates, which has been involved in the Dubai International Financial Center’s “New Silk Road” conferences. “What will drive the relationship forward will be private investment.”

China-MENA trade is not strictly limited to MENA energy flowing to China with Chinese goods and contractors heading the other way, yet  the “New Silk Road” that is frequently touted has not materialized to the same degree as many expected. “It is a bit of a mystery, as the relationship should be much closer,” says David Roberts, director of Royal United Services Institutes (RUSI) in Qatar, a British think tank with an office in Doha. “It is an issue of how to do it, to make it stronger, but there is no panacea.”

Nonetheless, the Arab world and China are keen to bolster ties further, certainly at the trade level, setting a target in 2012 at the Fifth Session of the Ministerial Meeting of the Forum on China-Arab Cooperation of a projected $222 billion in bilateral trade this year to reach $300 billion in 2014. 

“The relationship has definitely gone beyond energy. It is not just Arabs wanting to expand economic relations, but also the Chinese trying to reach out to the Arab world,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of London and Dubai-based political risk analyst group Cornerstone Global Associates.

Yet such figures compared to the European Union and the US are far from stellar — China-EU trade in 2011 was $567.2 billion, and bilateral trade with the US was $536 billion in 2012. From the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, far more heads in China’s direction — primarily hydrocarbons — than the other way, with exports of $92 billion in 2012, compared to imports from China of $59 billion. Excluding Bahrain and the UAE, the other GCC countries run sizable trade surpluses with China.

Public over Private Investment

China is attempting to cozy up to MENA countries, but this is complicated by not being able to bring much to the table. Capital rich GCC countries have no real need for the Chinese to build roads, railway networks or the like; the GCC countries themselves can pay for these networks. Indeed, Chinese contractors are winning government contracts, not Beijing-funded overseas development projects. Away from energy and construction projects, China wants to invest in technology and valued added goods, and to acquire stakes, or outright own companies, not just build-operate-transfer (BOT) style deals. 

“A lot of MENA countries don’t want to sell their oil assets, even though the Chinese would love to buy — and overpay for — them, as they do all over world. So if not buying, then something else is needed. That is where energy and construction comes up, and the Chinese are very good at power plants, which a lot of MENA needs. It is about building stuff to improve overall diplomatic ties and strengthen [the] energy relationship,” said Derek Scissors, an Asia economist in charge of the China Global Investment Tracker at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C.

Looking at China’s investments in the MENA overall, there is a clear bias toward energy producing countries. Those that are less significant energy exporters but could do with financial and infrastructure aid — take Yemen or Lebanon — do not attract the same levels of investment from China; they cannot compete with resource-rich Algeria, Libya, Iran or the sub-Saharan African countries. 

While there are clear foreign policy objectives in Beijing’s overseas business dealings, opinion is split over the degree that foreign investment and projects are a state-orientated means of expansion. “As far as China is concerned, a lot of state-backed ventures are not necessarily looking for returns. It is not unusual to come across a Chinese state fund expecting a return on investment of zero. The reason for that is purely political, and much of that is being reciprocated from the Arab side,” said Nuseibeh.

Simpfendorfer believes that while there is a degree of state interest in gaining new markets, and a “quirk of the contemporary period,” it is not all about bolstering relations to the detriment of the bottom line. “The government sets general policy and guidance, and if, say, a company wants to get into the resource sector, it may find it easier to get preferential financing, or approval for direct investments, but more in the sense of guidance,” he said. “It is not the [Chinese] government saying ‘we want you in this sector by buying this asset.’ Ultimately these companies are driven by profit. It is a bit like a horse race, with 10 all competing, and all going in the same direction. It does give the appearance that state companies are responding to direct state intervention, but [they] are typically behaving in a way the state approves of.”  

Arab investment in China, however, is more overtly foreign policy driven, being primarily sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and energy companies seeking to consolidate the relationship. And Scissors points out that MENA investors missed out on opportunities in the 1990s when China really started to become an economic behemoth, and the opportunities have been drying up since then. “MENA came late to the game and is very energy focused, and now [China] is not a really great place to invest,” he said. 

One of the obstacles to developing the MENA-Sino relationship is that it has not really moved beyond state-to-state level deals: these include a $2 billion deal with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the China State Construction Engineering Company in 2012 to fund and develop 30 projects for the Abu Dhabi government-owned Aabar in the emirate, and GCC SWFs investing in China’s Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program. 

As RUSI’s Roberts noted, “Look at Qatar, for example. It wants to invest in China, and the Qatar Investment Authority, the country’s SWF, opened an office in Beijing, but the biggest investment was an [initial public offering] for the Agricultural Bank of China — $2.8 billion in 2010 — and not much else. These things have to be offered on a silver platter, with a great big IPO, and [then Qataris] are happy to invest. Otherwise I don’t think they have the capability, and the Qataris are not alone. They won the right to invest in China’s Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor scheme. So they have that ability, but the question is, now what?”

Bolstering the Relationship

For the relationship to go beyond oil and mercantile trade, private investment in both regions needs to be bolstered. China’s financial market is largely insular and has had a mixed track record, and its currency, the Renminbi, is not traded on international markets. MENA, on the other hand, is more Western orientated, particularly when it comes to finance and large scale investments. In that sense, Chinese-Arab relations are very minor compared to Arab-Western banking and financial relations. “I don’t expect Chinese banks to replace or take a big chunk of MENA finance. It will take a long time for the Chinese to creep into that sector ­— probably the last one [China is] able to effectively penetrate,” said Nuseibeh.

For such relations to change, there needs to be better connections at the top levels. “Gulf investors and politicians don’t know their Chinese counterparts but know people who matter in all the capitals in Europe; they’ve been to their houses and have their phone numbers and will get a call if there is an opportunity, but that is not the case with China. And why make acquisitions in a place they’ve never heard of in China, when they could buy Harrods [of London]? A flippant point, but worth making, that the GCC is more comfortable with the EU,” said Roberts.

Change is afoot however at the cultural-linguistics level. Some 3,500 Gulf students are studying in China, while Chinese Muslims are being encouraged by Beijing to go and work in the Arab world. Furthermore, some 1,200 Chinese diplomats are studying Arabic. “That will obviously lead to stronger relations with people. The Chinese are taking their time, but on a firm road to strengthen relations,”  said Nuseibeh.

It appears that it will be some time before the “New Silk Road” will be about more than just energy.


Chinese Investment in MENA


Country Sectors Amount Year(s)
Oman Agriculture $150 mn 2005
Algeria Transportation ($8.8 bn) Real estate ($2.3 bn), Energy ($390 mn) $11.5 bn 2005-2013
Iran Metals ($2.7 bn), Transportation ($2.1 bn), Energy ($13.9 bn) $18.6 bn 2005-2013
Turkey Transportation ($1.4 bn), Real estate ($780 mn), Energy ($4.3 bn) $6.4 bn 2005-2013
Saudi Arabia Metals ($5.2 bn), Transportation ($1.2 bn), Real Estate ($2.2 bn), Agriculture ($1.3 bn), Energy ($3.3 bn), Other ($350 mn) $13.6 bn 2005-2012
Libya Transportation ($2.6 bn), Real Estate ($400 mn) $3 bn 2007-2008
Kuwait Transportation ($410 mn), Real Estate ($960 mn), Energy ($350 mn) $1.7 bn 2007-2012
UAE Technology ($120 mn), Real Estate ($4.9 bn), Agriculture ($130 mn), Energy ($3.3 bn) $8.5 bn 2008-2013
Egypt Metals ($940 mn), Transportation ($340 mn), Real Estate ($650 mn), Energy ($2 bn), Other ($230 mn) $4.2 bn 2006-2012
Israel Technology ($240 mn), Agriculture ($1.4 bn) $1.7 bn 2010-2013
Qatar Transportation ($880 mn), Real Estate ($1.4 bn), Energy ($100 mn) $2.4 bn 2006-2011
Iraq Energy ($6.6 bn) $6.6 bn 2007-2012
Syria Energy ($3.8 bn) $3.8 bn 2005-2010




Total
$82.15 bn




Major Chinese Investment Worldwide


Country Sectors Amount

Australia Metals ($29.7 bn), Transportation ($550 mn), Real Estate ($1.6 bn), Agriculture ($1.5 bn) Finance ($330 mn), Energy ($24.4 bn), Other ($180 mn) $58.2 bn
USA Metals ($1.3 bn), Technology ($3 bn), Transportation ($2.5 bn), Real Estate ($5.8 bn), Agriculture ($4.8 bn), Finance ($20.3 bn), Energy ($15.5 bn), Other ($4.8 bn) $57.6 bn
Canada Metals ($3.3 bn), Energy ($33.1 bn) $37.6 bn
Britain Metals (800 mn), Transportation ($1.4 bn), Real Estate ($3.3 bn), Agriculture ($3.4 bn), Finance ($4 bn), Energy ($4.9 bn) $17.8 bn




Chinese Investment in Africa


Country Sectors Amount Year(s)
Angola Transportation ($350 mn), Real Estate ($5.1 bn), Energy ($2.1 bn) $8.1 bn 2005-2013
Mauritania Transportation ($770 mn), Agriculture ($300 mn) $1.1 bn
South Africa Metals ($2.7 bn), Finance ($5.9 bn) $8.7 bn
Zambia Metals ($1.5 bn), Transportation ($280 mn), Real Estate ($420 mn), Agriculture ($150 mn), Energy ($1.9 bn) $4.3 bn
DRC Metals ($6.2 bn), Energy ($660 mn), Other ($100 mn) $6.9 bn
Chad Transportation ($6.6 bn), Energy ($200 mn) $6.8 bn
Equatorial Guinea Real Estate ($240 mn), Energy ($650 mn) $890 mn
Ghana Metals ($1.5 bn), Transportation ($150 mn), Real Estate ($360 mn), Agriculture ($530 mn), Energy ($2.5 bn) $4.7 bn
Niger Metals ($190 mn), Energy ($5 bn) $5.2 bn
Gabon Transportation ($890 mn), Energy ($400 mn) $1.4 bn
Liberia Metals ($110 mn) $100 mn
Botswana Energy ($1.1 bn) $1.1 bn
Madagascar Energy ($290 mn) $290 mn
Congo Transportation ($2.1 bn), Real Estate ($140 mn), Agriculture ($120 mn), Energy ($380 mn) $2.8 bn
Togo Transportation ($380 mn), Energy ($370 mn) $750 mn
Sierra Leone Metals ($1.8 bn), Transportation ($3 bn) $4.7 bn
Guinea Metals ($7.3 bn), Energy ($530 mn) $7.8 bn
Uganda Metals ($100 mn), Transportation ($350 mn), Energy ($3.1 bn) $3.6 bn
Mosambique Real Estate ($740 mn), Agriculture ($250 mn), Energy ($4.2 bn) $5.2 bn
Sudan Transportation ($1.5 bn), Agriculture ($600 mn), Energy ($400 mn) $2.5 bn
South Sudan Energy ($1.4 bn), Other ($210 mn) $1.6 bn
Mauritius Transportation ($300 mn), Real Estate ($750 mn), Energy ($110 mn) $1.2 bn
Zimbabwe Metals ($400 mn), Transportation ($200 mn), Real Estate ($100 mn), Agriculture ($200 mn), Other ($200 mn) $1.1 bn
Nigeria Technology ($1.7 bn), Transport ($5.1 bn), Real Estate ($1.2 bn), Energy ($8.6 bn) $18.5 bn
Djibouti Transportation ($700 mn) $700 mn
Ethiopia Technology ($2.4 bn), Transport ($2.5 bn), Real Estate ($270 mn), Agriculture ($650 mn), Energy ($4.8 bn) $10.2 bn
Cameroon Metals ($660 mn), Transport ($1.6 bn), Agriculture ($870 mn), Energy ($1.5 bn) $4.6 bn
Africa total
$115.1 bn








Chinese investment worldwide






World total
$688.1 bn 100.00%
MENA
82.15 bn 11.90%
MENA (Excluding Israel and Turkey)
$74.05 bn 10.76%
Arab World (excluding Iran, Turkey and Israel)
$55.45 bn 8.00%
Africa
$115.1 bn 16.72%
Australia
$58.2 bn 8.40%
USA
$57.6 bn 8.30%
Other
$428.25 bn 62.20%




Source: Data compiled by The Heritage Foundation, reprinted with permission